An Early Look At The AFC/NFC Title Games

The upcoming AFC and NFC Championship games are like Christmas Eve for sports fans - as they determine the Super Bowl finalists that will head to Las Vegas on February 11th.

Since this is my first analysis post, I should mention that I will use win probabilities from ESPN.com and odds from Oddshark.com as they stood at the time of this post. I also use just the money line to analyze.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP:

BALTIMORE is -180 with 63.6% odds of winning. Their EV would be -$.0.01.

KANSAS CITY is +160 with 36.4% odds of winning. Their EV would be -$0.05.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

DETROIT is +265 with 25.9% odds of winning. Their EV would be -$0.05.

SAN FRANCISCO is -315 with 74.1 odds of winning. Their EV would be -$0.02.

So right now, Baltimore is the best bet on the board - but ALL bets have a negative expected value. We'll see if things improve as the week progresses.