The Daily Slate For 1/23/2024

Happy Tuesday, everybody. Here are the latest EV computations for today's games, as of this writing (8:25 AM ET). For NHL win probability odds, I'll use Moneypuck.com.

I will mostly stick to pro sports for these picks - but I will analyze college picks when there are bowl games, during March Madness, or when there are no pro games scheduled.

NBA:

DENVER AT INDIANA

DENVER is -155 and has a 49.7% win chance. The EV for this pick is -$0.18.

INDIANA is +135 and has a 50.3% win chance. The EV for this pick is $0.18.

(The EV's mirror each other with the win chances so close.)

NEW YORK AT BROOKLYN

NEW YORK is -185 and has a 59.2% win chance. The EV for this pick is -$0.09.

BROOKLYN is +155 and has a 40.8% win chance. The EV for this pick is $0.04.

(EV tends to like underdogs. A safer bet on Brooklyn would be taking the points.)

UTAH AT NEW ORLEANS

UTAH is +210 and has a 28.2% win chance. The EV here is -$0.12.

NEW ORLEANS is -250 and has a 71.2 win chance. The EV computes to $0.01.

(Despite the talent gap, this is a shaky pick with little value on the Pelicans.)

PORTLAND AT OKLAHOMA CITY

PORTLAND is a longshot at +675 and has an 8.2% win chance. The EV here is -$0.36.

OKC is a heavy favorite at -1100 and has a 91.8% win chance. The EV here is barely on the plus side at $0.001538.

(Yikes.)

LA LAKERS AT LA CLIPPERS

The LAKERS are +300 and have a 14.9% win chance. The EV here is -$0.40.

The CLIPPERS are -380 and have an 85.1% win chance. The EV here is $0.07.

(The Clippers are the better play in the battle of Los Angeles.)

NHL:

OTTAWA AT MONTREAL

OTTAWA is -145 and has a 56.5% win chance. The EV here is -$0.05.

MONTREAL is +125 with a 43.5% win chance. The EV here is -$0.02.

(Neither team is a good play unless the odds change during the day.)

DALLAS AT DETROIT

DALLAS is -145 and has a 59.5% win chance. The EV here is $0.01.

DETROIT is +125 and has a 40.5% win chance. The EV here is -$0.09.

(The Stars are just barely a viable play.)

TAMPA BAY AT PHILADELPHIA

TAMPA BAY is EVEN MONEY (+100) with a 48.5% win chance. The EV here is -$0.03.

PHILLY is -120 with a 51.5% win chance. Their EV is -$0.06.

(Another "double negative" game.)

VEGAS AT NY ISLANDERS

VEGAS is +125 with a 47.3% win chance. The EV is $0.06.

The ISLANDERS are -145 with a 52.7% win chance. Their EV is -$0.11.

(Lots of value on the defending Stanley Cup winners with those odds.)

WASHINGTON AT MINNESOTA

WASHINGTON is +140 with a 38.5% win chance. The EV is -$0.08.

MINNESOTA is -160 with a 61.5% win chance, making their EV just a tad into negative territory at -$0.00625.

(Put a gun to my head, and I'd take the Wild.)

ST. LOUIS AT CALGARY

ST. LOUIS is +140 with a 40.8% win chance. Their EV is -$0.02.

CALGARY is -155 with a 59.2% win chance. Their EV is -$0.03.

(Neither team has value.)

COLUMBUS AT EDMONTON

COLUMBUS is +295 with a 21.9% win chance. Their EV is -$0.16.

EDMONTON is -375 with a 78.1% win chance. Their EV is -$0.01.

(Both teams negative plays despite what may be a mismatch.)

BUFFALO AT ANAHEIM

BUFFALO is -155 and has a 60.6% win chance. Their EV is -$0.00313.

ANAHEIM is +135 with a 39.4% win chance. Their EV is -$0.07.

(Wouldn't make a pick on either side.)

NY RANGERS AT SAN JOSE

The RANGERS are -340 with a 75.1% win chance. Their EV is -$0.03.

SAN JOSE is +270 with a 24.9% win chance. Their EV is -$0.08.

So amongst the professional action tonight, Indiana currently is the best value play.